Structured research
Research
Research on capital allocation, investment decision-making and the management of risk and uncertainty across infrastructure, maritime industries and long-term real assets.
From Analysis to Decision
Why investment decisions still require independent judgement
Better analysis does not automatically mean better decisions. What happens between a good investment analysis and a good capital allocation decision?
A Good Base Case Does Not Mean a Robust Investment
An investment may meet every required financial criterion in the Base Case and still have very little room for error. The distance to the breakpoint is what the Base Case cannot tell you.
Not All CAPEX Creates Value. Some CAPEX Prevents Value Destruction.
For long-life assets, the comparison is no longer invest versus do nothing. It is the cost of investing today versus the potential cost of not investing.
A Portfolio Target Is Not an Asset-Level Strategy
Decarbonisation targets are often defined at portfolio level. Investment decisions are not.
Waiting Is Also an Investment Decision
When regulation, technology and market expectations are moving, postponing an investment does not preserve the status quo.
Every Decarbonisation Project Competes for Scarce Capital
Decarbonisation is not an engineering problem. It is a capital allocation problem.
Incentives Are a Lever. They Are Not a Strategy.
Incentives can accelerate investment. They should never drive it.